Implementing a Weather-Based Early Warning System to Prevent Traffic Accidents Fatalities

Introduction: The present study aims to design a weather-based early warning system to prevent traffic accidents fatalities. Methodology: In this study, the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) was used to determine epidemic threshold. By roc curve, the Sensitivity and Specificity of temperature points were determined and, the point with highest sensitivity and specificity was selected based on Youden’s index. They were analyzed by Excel and statistical package of SPSS (version 19) software. Results: The number road traffic accidents deaths in Fars province was reduced during 2004 to2009. Epidemic threshold for mortality of accidents by EARS method was 179 people per month. By roc curve, Youden’s index of the maximum sensitivity and specificity was achieved at 10°C. Sensitivity, Specificity and Predictive Value Positive for road traffic accidents deaths by cut of point were 82%, 81, 83%. Conclusion: This study proposes that based on predictability of mortality of accidents by weather variables and high ratio of Sensitivity, Specificity and Predictive Value Positive of the variables for early diagnosis of mortality of accidents we can have a good planning by coordinating between a defined section, health centers, Road office and traffic police by identifying the times with maximum mortality of accidents.